HOUSTON – (By Dale King, Realty News Report) – If you moved to Phoenix in 2021, you were part of a very large migration. Redfin, the real estate brokerage, reports that Phoenix gained a net 85,183 residents from other parts of the United States last year — more than any other U.S. metropolitan area.
Redfin analyzed migration trends using its search data and U.S. Census estimates to determine where Americans relocated. The Sun Belt dominated the list of popular destinations as workers and families sought affordability, warmer climates, and more space after the pandemic reshaped work and lifestyle choices.
Lone Star State Population Growth Leaders
Texas also captured significant migration. Three Texas metropolitan areas ranked among the top 10 relocation destinations: Dallas was second, Austin sixth and San Antonio tenth.
Redfin’s data show Dallas recorded a net inflow of 56,449 people from other states, Austin welcomed 32,440 newcomers, and San Antonio added 23,909 new residents.
CoreLogic reported that Texas led the nation in net population growth between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, gaining roughly 310,000 people. Florida followed with about 211,000 net new residents, with Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia also among the leaders.
Snapshot of housing market metrics in major Texas metros:
- Dallas: Median home price $482,100, up 28% year-over-year; average rent for new leases $2,081, up 28.5%; homes for sale down 27.6%.
- Austin: Median home price $385,000, up 30.3% year-over-year; average rent for new leases $2,290, up 39.9%; homes for sale down 6.5%.
- San Antonio: Median home price $308,600, up 18.7% year-over-year; average rent for new leases $1,386, up 11.5%; homes for sale down 17.86%.
- Houston: Median home price $319,000 in December, up 17.3% year-over-year; average rent for new leases $1,807 in December, up 10.4%; homes for sale down 26.4%.
Florida also attracted many new residents. Orlando placed third with about 56,000 people relocating there, while Tampa ranked fifth, adding 37,440 new residents.
The Redfin ranking measures net inflow — how many more people moved into a metro than left — and is based on Redfin.com search behavior combined with Census estimates.
Nine of the 10 most popular destinations were in the Sun Belt, and half of those metros had median home-sale prices below the national median of roughly $383,000 in December, making them relatively attractive to buyers priced out of higher-cost coastal markets.
People Flocked to the Sun Belt
Widespread remote work and historically low mortgage rates helped spur migration to Sun Belt cities, but the surge of newcomers has driven housing costs upward. Nationwide, 31% of Redfin users searched for homes in a different metro in 2021, up from 25.6% in 2019.
Redfin found that year‑over‑year home-price growth in December exceeded the national rate of 15% for all 10 of the most popular destinations. Rent increases for new leases also outpaced national growth (14%) in seven of those metros.
Local agents report extreme demand. In Austin, Redfin agent Barb Cooper said sellers are listing at higher prices due to strong out‑of‑state demand. She recently had buyers searching for a 2,000‑square‑foot home under $300,000 and had to tell them such homes no longer exist in the area.
In Phoenix, Redfin reports the typical home sold for $435,000 in December, a 28% increase from a year earlier, while average monthly rent for new leases rose 26% to $2,100. Consumer prices and services have also risen faster in many popular destinations; Phoenix saw inflation of 8.4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, the second-highest rate in the U.S.
“Moving across the country is now easier for many Americans, thanks to remote work,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. He added that the cultural shift toward geographic flexibility is likely to persist.
However, Marr warned that rising housing costs are eroding affordability in popular destinations. Renters and residents who can’t participate in homeownership are facing displacement as housing and living costs rise. He urged local governments in sprawling Sun Belt metros to continue prioritizing new-home construction to meet demand.
Higher budgets from out‑of‑state buyers are contributing to rapid price growth. In eight of the 10 most popular destinations (excluding two Florida metros), the average budget of an out‑of‑town buyer was at least 15% higher than the average local’s budget in early 2021.
Redfin’s report suggests that continued rent and price growth could slow migration into the most sought‑after Sun Belt cities as affordability narrows. Some prospective movers might choose to remain in costly coastal cities due to personal or professional ties, while others could relocate to less expensive northern metros.
Still, many Sun Belt markets remain noticeably more affordable than major coastal metros. For example, the typical Los Angeles home sold for about $835,000 in December, roughly double Phoenix’s median—keeping Arizona, Texas and Florida attractive options for a significant number of relocating buyers.
Feb. 11, 2022 Realty News Report Copyright 2022.
Photo Credit: Ralph Bivins, Realty News Report Copyright 2022
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File: Sunbelt Leads Population Shift