2026 is Fairly Sunny: Colliers: Outlook for

In Houston, The Houston economy is headed for a fairly healthy 2026 and most sectors of the city’s real estate markets are solid with a positive outlook, says Danny Rice, president of the Colliers Houston commercial real estate firm.

“The good news is we’re in Houston and Houston continues to thrive. We’re obviously the No. 1 export metro in the country. The Port continues to thrive,” Rice said, at the company’s annual Houston Trends outlook event last week.

The Houston metro area now has a population of 7.8 million, Rice noted, and Space City is second in the nation in terms of in-migration. Houston home sales were up 3.8% in 2025, compared to 2024.

Houston and Dallas lead the nation in new home construction, fueling demand for new retail space.

Area retail centers have been adding retailers and restaurants such as H-E-B, Chick-fil-A, Planet Fitness and Chipotle, Rice said. Houston has 2.8 million SF of retail space under construction and vacancies are being backfilled quickly after retailers shut down.

Houston’s office vacancy remains elevated at 27.4%, Colliers reports. But Rice said Houstonians should celebrate that the city’s office market had 718,989 SF of positive absorption in 2025, meaning there was a net gain in the amount of space filled, the first time since 2019.

“It’s really cool to finally get up here and finally have a story that’s positive for office space because it has not been the best story for four or five years,” Rice told the audience.

Investor interest in Houston office buildings has increased with a number of sales concluding at the $50-to $60 per SF range, he said. “Houston sales volume was the best since 2019,” Rice said.

Construction is brisk in the warehouse market.

Houston’s construction pipeline has 233 industrial buildings with a total of 26.3 million SF. The citywide vacancy rate is 7.4%, up from 6.4% a year ago.

Rice said 400 million SF of industrial space has been built in Houston in the last 25 years.

The Big Boon of 2026

The FIFA World Cup soccer tournament in June will stimulate the Houston economy, Rice said. “You’re going to see a $1.5 billion economic impact, 500,000 visitors coming through this city. It’s obviously going to be a big boon for this city and elevate Houston on the global map.”